A study co-authored by UBC Okanagan Associate Professor Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi and doctoral student Bijoy Saha uses Okanagan travel-diary data to model destination choices across full bike “tours.”
Cyclists often stay close to home, take shorter routes when making multiple stops and favour areas with connected bike lanes and nearby amenities, according to new research from UBC Okanagan’s School of Engineering.
The study, co-authored by Dr. Mahmudur Fatmi, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, and doctoral student Bijoy Saha, appears in the Journal of Transport Geography and uses Okanagan travel-diary data to model destination choices across full bike “tours”—or chained trips that start and end at home.
“Planners often know popular routes. We’re showing where people stop and how that changes as a day gets more complex,” says Saha. “If you want people to link a café, park and store by bike, connect those areas with safe infrastructure and more destinations within reach.”
Much of the existing research focuses on single trips. Saha’s model accounts for how cyclists plan their days, which can include things like a coffee on the way to work, groceries on the way back, and limits like time, terrain and stamina.
First, the model filters destinations that are too far or demanding for a cyclist to reach. Then it uses a statistical approach to understand why riders choose different places and what attracts them to certain destinations.
The study found that cyclists usually choose nearby destinations, travel farther on simple one-stop tours, and take shorter routes when they have more stops.
“Cyclists often make multiple stops before reaching their destinations, such as picking up coffee or stopping for groceries,” Saha says. “This makes it necessary to recognize this ‘spatio-temporal’ dependency of travel and plan routes that connect them. Our model captures that reality.”
Built-environment factors such as the number of nearby activities and the ratio of bike lanes to road length increase the odds a rider will choose an area.
The model was trained on data from the 2018 Okanagan Travel Survey, a region-wide 24-hour diary of trips across Kelowna, West Kelowna, Vernon, Peachland and Lake Country.
Saha, who conducts his research in UBCO’s integrated Transportation Research lab, says the goal is practical: help cities place bike lanes, end-of-trip parking and services where cyclists are likely to go.
The work comes as BC continues to support active transportation networks with provincial grants and new funding adding up to roughly $135 million in capital support since 2023.
Some policy takeaways from the study include:
- Add destinations near homes and employment areas; density draws riders.
- Connect clusters with continuous bike lanes; a higher bike-lane-to-road ratio boosts attractiveness.
- Expect telecommuters to bike farther for recreation and errands; plan secure parking at parks, cafés and community hubs.
Dr. Fatmi says the study strengthens a part of transportation planning that has often been overlooked.
“Most demand models are still centred on vehicles, which means they don’t always reflect how cyclists make decisions,” he says. “By improving how we model cyclists’ destination choices, planners get more realistic and accurate inputs. That allows cities to target the right connections, invest more equitably across neighbourhoods and support genuine shifts toward active travel.
“This work is also feeding into our larger effort to build a full model that evaluates both vehicle and non-vehicle travel, and how each affects traffic and the environment.”
